The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time-varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...

This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk stochastic process. Specifying inflation volatility as an unbounded process, as implied by the random walk, conflicts with...

The aim of this paper is to compare inflation persistence between the New Member States (NMS) that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007 and selected euro area members. If the levels of inflation persistence between the two groups are different, the NMS may encounter problems with...

This paper investigates the differences between parameter estimates of monetary policy reaction functions using real-time data and those using revised data. The model is a New Keynesian DSGE model of the Czech, Hungarian and Polish small open economies in interaction with the euro area. Unlike...

This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock price indices of four prominent OPEC oil-exporting members. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and regularized linear regression (RLR) are employed to address uncertainties arising from diferent estimation models and...

In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...

The hedge fund represents a unique investment opportunity for the institutional and private investors in the diffusion-type financial systems. The main objective of this condensed article is to research the hedge fund’s optimal investment portfolio strategies selection in the global capital...