In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner's g prior. The main results are fourfold: First the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally...

Ciccone and Jarocínski (2010) show that inference in Bayesian model averaging (BMA) can be highly sensitive to small changes in the dependent variable. In particular they demonstrate that the importance of growth determinants in explaining growth varies tremendously over different revisions of...

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential...

We study empirically the role that initial conditions played in the emergence of cross-country heterogeneity in real output loss during the recent global financial crisis. We use a global sample covering over 150 countries and focus on the differences in the determinants of the crisis in...

We study empirically the role that initial conditions played in the emergence of cross-country heterogeneity in real output loss during the recent global financial crisis. We use a global sample covering over 150 countries and focus on the differences in the determinants of the crisis in...

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential...

We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model...

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential...