The recent oil price fall has created concern among policy makers regarding the consequences of terms of trade shocks for resource-rich countries. This concern is not a minor one – the world's commodity exporters combined are responsible for 15–20% of global value added. We estimate a...

The recent oil price fall has created concern among policy makers regarding the consequences of terms of trade shocks for resource-rich countries. This concern is not a minor one - the world's commodity exporters combined are responsible for 15-20% of global value added. We develop and estimate...

We investigate the cyclical behavior of banks' balance sheet variables for different size groups using bank-level Turkish data. We first rank banks based on the size of their assets, and then systematically document business cycle facts of various balance sheet items and profitability measures...

Should central banks use leaning against the wind (LAW)-type monetary or macroprudential policy to address risks to financial stability? We first assess LAW as a one-off (nonsystematic) policy using an estimated large-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with empirically...

We provide a theory of persistent financial cycles based on partly backward looking house price beliefs, endogenous crises and conditions under which leaning against the wind (LAW)-type monetary policy is advisable to address risks to financial stability. Under empirically plausible financial...