To confront the challenge that disaster risk is “dark matter” in finance, we construct an objective measure of disaster risk, which is able to predict half of GDP crashes in a sample of 20 advanced economies between 1870 and 2021. Despite this significant predictability, we find no...

Motivated by psychological evidence that attention is a scarce cognitive resource, we model investors' attention allocation in learning and study the effects of this on asset-price dynamics. We show that limited investor attention leads to ``category-learning" behavior, i.e., investors tend to...

The market dynamics of technology stocks in the late nineties has stimulated a growing body of theories that analyze the joint effects of short-sales constraints and heterogeneous beliefs on stock prices and trading volume. This paper examines implications of these theories using a unique data...

We develop a model of asset price bubbles based on the communication process between advisors and investors. Advisors are well-intentioned and want to maximize the welfare of their advisees (like a parent treats a child). But only some advisors understand the new technology (the tech-savvies);...