Annual rebalancing of the S&P GSCI index provides a novel and strong identification to estimate the shape of supply curves for commodity futures contracts. Using the 24 commodities included in the S&P GSCI for 2004–2017, we show that cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) reach a peak of 59 basis...

Several studies employ mapping algorithms to infer index positions in WTI crude oil futures from positions in agricultural futures and report an economically large and statistically significant impact of index positions on crude oil futures prices. In this article, we provide direct evidence...

This article reviews the literature on commodities from the perspective of an investor. We re-examine some of the early papers in the literature using recent data and find that the empirical support for the theory of normal backwardation as an explanation for the commodity risk premium is weak...

This paper reviews the literature on commodities from the perspective of an investor. We re-examine some of the early papers in the literature using recent data, and find that the empirical support for the Theory of Normal Backwardation as an explanation for the commodity risk premium is weak,...

We introduce a new methodology to estimate the latent factors of a multivariate jump diffusion process illustrated with an application to the commodity futures term structure. Specifically, we propose a new state space form and then use a modified Kalman filter to estimate models with latent...

This paper studies the dynamic interaction between the net positions of traders and risk premiums in commodity futures markets. Short-term position changes are mainly driven by the liquidity demands of non-commercial traders, while long-term variation is primarily driven by the hedging demands...

In this paper, we examine the role that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) plays in the global price discovery of soybean futures. We employ Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models on the returns of the DCE and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean...