This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model...

Conventional wisdom has it that natural resource dependence is associated with increased vulnerability to external shocks emanating from sudden supply and demand changes in the global economy. This paper explores to what extent government revenue in low- and middle-income countries is affected...

Some countries fail to ensure that their citizens and businesses make an appropriate contribution to the financing of public tasks. But not all countries with a low tax ratio automatically fall into this cat-egory. This paper presents an approach to bridge the gap between probabilistic...

Beyond the general impact of shocks on economic growth there are specific effects of shocks on revenue systems that shape the capacity of governments to react to adverse external events and sustain development expenditure. These effects vary not only with the kinds of shock affecting the...

Some countries fail to ensure that their citizens and businesses make an appropriate contribution to the financing of public tasks. But not all countries with a low tax ratio automatically fall into this category. This paper presents an approach to bridge the gap between probabilistic statements...

Some countries fail to ensure that their citizens and businesses make an appropriate contribution to the financing of public tasks. But not all countries with a low tax ratio automatically fall into this cat-egory. This paper presents an approach to bridge the gap between probabilistic...

This paper explores the extent to which government revenue is affected by external shocks, and whether these effects are different for resource-rich as compared with non-resource-rich countries. We are particularly interested in the fate of poorer countries, as we assume they will find it more...

Climate change is a major threat to the sustainability and inclusiveness of our societies, and to the planet's habitability. A just transition to a low-carbon economy is the only viable way forward. This paper reviews the climate change challenge. It stresses the criticality of systems changes...