This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The selection of trade indicator series is made using a...

This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to perform short-term forecasts of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The selection of trade indicator series is made using a multidimensional approach,...

We estimate the potential for trade in services in a 2-step approach using a gravity model for a sample of bilateral service trade flows in individual service categories between 65 countries over the period 2000 to 2005. In particular, we focus on the Austrian economy's potential for untapped...