We analyze the value of foresight in the drybulk freight market when repositioning a vessel through space and time. In order to do that, we apply an optimization model on a network with dynamic regional freight rate differences and stochastic travel times. We evaluate the value of the...

Many industries use dynamic pricing on an operational level to maximize revenue from selling a fixed capacity over a finite horizon. Classical risk-neutral approaches do not accommodate the risk aversion often encountered in practice. We add to the scarce literature on risk aversion by...

Binary random variables often refer to such as customers that are present or not, roads that are open or not, machines that are operable or not. At the same time, stochastic programs often apply to situations where penalties are accumulated when demand is not met, travel times are too long, or...

We consider the basic problem of refi tting a time series over a finite period of time and formulate it as a stochastic dynamic program. By changing the underlying Markov decision process we are able to obtain a model that at optimality considers historical data as well as forecasts of future...

This paper describes a method for solving a class of forward-looking Markov-switching Rational Expectations models under noisy measurement, by specifying the unobservable expectations component as a general-measurable function of the observable states of the system, to be determined optimally...

These notes provide an intuitive introduction to dynamic programming. The first two Sections, which can be skipped, present the standard deterministic Ramsey model using the Lagrangian approach. Section 3 reformulates the Ramsey problem by means of a Bellman equation, while Section 4 shows how...

Based on a dynamic life cycle model, this study analyzes health-related risks of consumption and old-age poverty. The model allows for health effects on employment risks, on productivity, on longevity, the correlation between health risks, productivity and preferences, and the financial...

The focus of our analysis is on nexus issues among energy use, incomes, employment, investment decisions, and agricultural production for meeting food and feed demands, as well as health-related effects on rural households. As an example we investigate potential policies, such as public...

Workers’absenteeism due to illness represents a major concern in several countries. Absenteeism are however not very well understood in economics. This paper presents a model where absenteeism is understood in relation to health. Its main predictions are (i) intermediate welfare state...

In this paper we study the behavior of optimal paths in dynamic programming models with a strictly convex return function. Such a model has been investigated in Dawid and Kopel (1997) who assume that the growth of a renewable resource is governed by a piecewise linear function. We prove that in...