This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment and wage inflation for 10 of the euro area countries. The … combination of low wage inflation and high unemployment in Europe is usually attributed to a rise in the natural rate of … unemployment that may account for a changing pattern in the unemployment inflation trade-off. Moreover, it analyzes whether the …

-curve regressions: The positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. It is shown that staggered price contracting models instead …

This paper applies linear and neural network-based "thick" models for forecasting inflation based on Phillips …

growth regime. Since the great financial crisis inflation developments have posed major puzzles to economists as inflation … paper analyses whether the wage-price pass-through may have contributed to these inflation puzzles. Applying the Threshold … or diminish the puzzle of the missing disinflation of the past two recessions suggesting that inflation should be …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

In the past five years, the inflation in the euro area has been well below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) aimed … inflation rate of close to but below two percent for achieving its objective of price stabilization in the medium term. The … present analysis shows that expectations of low inflation, rising cyclical unemployment, and external factors such as low …