Until recently, inference in many interesting models was precluded by the requirement of high dimensional integration. But dramatic increases in computer speed, and the recent development of new algorithms that permit accurate Monte Carlo evaluation of high dimensional integrals, have greatly...

There is a one-to-one mapping between the conventional time series parameters of a third-order autoregression and the more interpretable parameters of secular half-life, cyclical half-life and cycle period. The latter parameterization is better suited to interpretation of results using both...