The detection of business-cycle turning points is usually performed with non-linear discrete-regime models such as binary dependent variable (e.g., probit or logit) or Markov-switching methods. The probit model has the drawback that the continuous underlying target variable is discretized, with...

The topic of this paper is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock-Watsonand Gonzalo-Granger permanent-transitory decompositions in the frameworkof the cointegrated vector-autoregression. Specifically, we suggest an approach to construct the confidence interval of the transitory component in...

The topic of this paper is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock-Watson and Gonzalo-Granger permanent-transitory decompositions in the framework of the co-integrated vector autoregression. We suggest an approach to construct the confidence interval of the transitory component estimate in a...

Cogan et al. (2009, 2010) claim that the stimulus package passed by the United States Congress in February 2009 had a multiplier far below one. However, the stimulus ́multiplier strongly depends on the assumed monetary policy response. Based on official statements from the Fed chairman, the...