This paper presents the European Commission's Global Multi-country model (the GM model). The GM model is an estimated multi-country DSGE model that can be used for spillover analysis, forecasting and medium term projections. Its development is jointly performed by the Joint Research Centre and...

This economic brief provides a self-contained guide on the new Plausibility Tool, being a part of the constrained discretion approach to improving the Production Function methodology for calculating potential output and output gaps. It explains the macroeconomic model and its rationale, reports...

Potential output estimates during Ireland's pre-2007 housing boom showed narrowing output gaps and positive structural budget balances. These results helped to create a false sense of security among domestic policy makers. It took a deep economic and financial crisis to learn that Ireland had...