This article analyses the effects of government expenditures on German business cycle fluctuations by means of an estimated DSGE model based on low frequency oscillations. The results highlight that fiscal policy has a strong impact on the amplitude of fluctuations while hardly any on the...

Monetary authorities in emerging markets are often reluctant to raise interest rates when dealing with credit booms driven by capital inflows, as they fear that an increase attracts even more capital and appreciates the currency. A number of countries therefore use reserve requirements as an...

We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in...

We propose a modeling approach involving a series of small-scale dynamic factor models. They are connected to each other within a cluster, whose linkages are derived from Granger-causality tests. This approach merges the benefits of large-scale macroeconomic and small-scale factor models,...

We propose a modelling approach involving a series of small-scale factor models. They are connected to each other within a cluster, whose linkages are derived from Granger-causality tests. GDP forecasts are established across the production, income and expenditure accounts within a disaggregated...