This study focuses on the question whether nonlinear transformation of lagged time series values and residuals are able to systematically improve the average forecasting performance of simple Autoregressive models. Furthermore it investigates the potential superior forecasting results of a...

Although many macroeconomic time series are assumed to follow nonlinear processes, nonlinear models often do not provide better predictions than their linear counterparts. Furthermore, such models easily become very complex and difficult to estimate. The aim of this study is to investigate...

Welche Auswirkungen hat die Größe junger Alterskohorten auf die Arbeitsmarktergebnisse dieser Gruppen? In vier Essays untersucht Duncan Roth diesen Zusammenhang auf regionaler Ebene mittels verschiedener mikroökonometrischer Methoden. Betrachtet werden die Löhne, die Höhe von Beschäftigung...

This study investigates the incidence of overeducation among workers in the EU and its underlying factors based on the most recent wave of the European Labor Force Survey (EU-LFS 2013). Its main purpose is to shed light on the interplay of so far neglected explanatory factors such as household...

The population growth of cities in industrialized countries is characterized by striking disparities. While some cities experience a kind of resurgence in recent years others suffer from an ongoing depopulation. In this context an important issue refers to the question whether labour market...

We use administrative social security records and event history methods to investigate graduate migration in Germany. The results indicate that most migration events happen up to seven years after graduation. Work experience gathered before and during the studies influences the migration...