Vector-autoregressive models are used to decompose housing returns in 18 OECD countries into cash ow (rent) news and discount rate (return) news over the period 1970-2011. For the majority of countries news about future returns is the main driver, and both real interest rates and risk-premia...

We conduct a comprehensive international study of predictability in housing markets using the rent-price ratio as a predictive variable. On data from 18 OECD countries we generally find return predictability in accordance with time-varying risk-premia, but we also document two puzzles. First,...

We introduce a new method for the estimation of discount functions, yield curves and forward curves from government issued coupon bonds. Our approach is non-parametric and does not assume particular functional form for the discount function although we do show how to impose various restrictions...