We develop methods of non-parametric estimation for the Expected Shortfall of possibly heavy tailed asset returns that leads to asymptotically standard inference. We use a tail-trimming indicator to dampen extremes negligibly, ensuring standard Gaussian inference, and a higher rate of...

In the present paper we confine ourselves to proposing tests for smooth transition nonlinearity in the presence ou outliers. We consider outlier robust estimation techniques to modify the tests developed by Luukkonen et al

Linear GARCH(1,1) and threshold GARCH(1,1) processes are established as regularly varying, meaning their heavy tails are Pareto like, under conditions that allow the innovations from the, respective, processes to be skewed. Skewness is considered a stylized fact for many financial returns...

In this paper we consider model selection for time series with increasing (or decreasing) seasonal variation, where this variation can be described by (seasonal) unit root models with significant deterministic components or by models with less unit roots but with shiftsin seasonal means or trends

This paper presents a new test of the present value model of stock price determination, using some of the recent advances in the econometrics of seasonal time series. Unlike earlier studies which generally find stock prices, dividends, and interest rates to be characterized by standard...

Cointegration analysis is applied to investigate the long run relationships between money, prices, and wages in Norway. Broad money is determined endogenously, and monetary balances were exposed to large shocks during the period of financial deregulation in the midst of the 1980s. In the long...

Most of the available monthly interest data series consist of monthlyaverages of daily observations. It is well-known that this averaging introduces spurious autocorrelation effectsin the first differences of the series. It isexactly this differenced series we are interested in when...

This paper investigates the relationship between the terms of trade and current account deficits within a context of VECM. The results indicate that for the Ivory Coast there is a long-run relationship between the terms of trade and current account deficits. They also indicate that current...

A popular F test of Granger-causality relies on normally distributed errors of ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regressions. There is a long-standing need for a user-friendly algorithm replacing the OLS by kernel regressions, and the F test by a bootstrap. This paper introduces a version...

In this selective review, we first provide some empirical examples that motivate the usefulness of semi-nonparametric techniques in modelling economic and financial time series. We describe popular classes of semi-nonparametric dynamic models and some temporal dependence properties. We then...