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cointegration model, of pairs of stock prices. We show the effect that using an encompassing prior under an orthogonal normalization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259626
. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for predicting stable stock price ratios, defined in a cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505854
variables may be fractionally integrated and the predictive relation may feature cointegration, we provide sup-Wald break tests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831312
I propose a new measure of price discovery, which I will refer to as the Independent Component based Information Share (IC-IS). This measure constitutes a variant of the widespread Information Share, with the main difference being it does not suffer the same identification issues. Under the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489765
for the cointegration rank test are also briefly discussed. In our empirical application we use the data from Figuerola … conclusion from the empirical analysis is that, when using the FCVAR model, there is more support for the cointegration vector (1 …-run backwardation, compared to the results from the non-fractional model. Specifically, we reject the hypothesis that the cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946780
for the cointegration rank test are also brie y discussed. In our empirical application we use the data from Figuerola … conclusion from the empirical analysis is that, when using the FCVAR model, there is more support for the cointegration vector (1 …-run backwardation, compared to the results from the non-fractional model. Specifically, we reject the hypothesis that the cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010381434
Fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) and Heterogeneou Autoregressive (HAR) models are estimated and their ability to predict the one-trading-day-ahead CAC40 realized volatility is investigated. In particular, this paper follows three steps: (i) The optimal sampling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910123
We estimate a large Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model of daily stock return volatilities for 35 U.S. and European financial institutions. Based on that model we extract a connectedness index in the spirit of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) (DYCI). We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011778195
We propose a novel dynamic mixture vector autoregressive (VAR) model in which timevarying mixture weights are driven by the predictive likelihood score. Intuitively, the state weight of the k-th component VAR model in the subsequent period is increased if the current observation is more likely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819242
We propose a novel dynamic mixture vector autoregressive (VAR) model in which time-varying mixture weights are driven by the predictive likelihood score. Intuitively, the state weight of the k-th component VAR model in the subsequent period is increased if the current observation is more likely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014251324