We examine the time variations of expected momentum profits using a two-state Markov switching model with time-varying transition probabilities to evaluate the empirical relevance of recent rational theories of momentum profits. We find that in the expansion state the expected returns of winner...

To explain post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD), we suggest expected growth risk, which is measured as covariance between stock returns and expected future real GDP growth rates. We find that both expected growth rates and expected growth risk increase with standardized unexpected earnings,...