Forecasts play a critical role at inflation targeting central banks, such as the Bank of England. Breaks in the forecast performance of a model can potentially incur important policy costs. Commonly used statistical procedures, however, implicitly put a lot of weight on type I errors (or false...

The Bank's GDP nowcast represents the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) estimate of economic growth in the current quarter, before official data become available. The nowcast is informed by statistical models, but is ultimately judgemental, reflecting all available information.Users of...

Forecasts play a critical role at inflation-targeting central banks, such as the Bank of England. Breaks in the forecast performance of a model can potentially incur important policy costs. Commonly used statistical procedures, however, implicitly put a lot of weight on type I errors (or false...