We analyze four economic sentiment indicators for the German economy regarding their ability to forecast economic activity. Using cross correlations and Granger causality tests we find that the ifo business expectations (ifo), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the ZEW Indicator of Economic...

Michael Schröder (Hrsg.) Basistechniken, Fortgeschrittene Verfahren, Prognosemodelle 2., überarbeitete Auflage 2012 Schäffer-Poeschel Verlag Stuttgart IX Inhaltsübersicht Vorwort zur zweiten Auflage ...

We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...

Do financial market analysts use structural economic models when forecasting exchange rates? This is the leading question analysed in this apper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations instead of realised data. Therefore we analyse the implicit structural models forecasters have in...