This paper presents and evaluates a new approach, temporal aggregation of models, to forecast annual budget deficits using montly information. Using French monthly data on central government revenues and expenditures, the method we propose consists of: 1) estimating monthly ARIMA models for all...

Forecasting aggregate demand is a crucial matter in all industrial sectors. In this paper, we provide the analytical prediction properties of top-down (TD) and bottom-up (BU) approaches when forecasting aggregate demand, using multivariate exponential smoothing as demand planning framework. We...

While there is a vast macroeconomic literature that singles out the main drivers of capital accumulation in advanced economies during and after the global financial and sovereign debt crises’ recessionary phase, there is much less research seeking to identify both models and variables that...