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One of the key components of financial risk management is risk measurement. This typically requires modeling, estimating and forecasting tail-related quantities of the asset returns’ conditional distribution. Recent advances in the financial econometrics literature have developed several...
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This paper deals with empirical processes of the type Cn(B) = n^(1/2) {µn(B) - P(Xn+1 in B | X1, . . . ,Xn)} , where (Xn) is a sequence of random variables and µn = (1/n)SUM(i=1,..,n) d(Xi) the empirical measure. Conditions for supB|Cn(B)| to converge stably (in particular, in distribution)...
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We propose an ensemble learning methodology to forecast the future US GDP growth release. Our approach combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with a Dynamic Factor model accounting for time-variation in the mean with a Generalized Autoregressive Score (DFM-GAS). We show how this combination...
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In this contribution, we propose machine learning techniques to predict zombie firms . First, we derive risk of failure by training and testing our algorithm on disclosed financial information and non-random missing values by 304,906 firms active in Italy in the period 2008-2017. Then, we spot...
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