We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures....

American fiscal policy has been procyclical: Washington wasted the expansion period 2001-2007 by running budget deficits, but by 2011 had come to feel constrained by inherited debt to withdraw fiscal stimulus. Chile has achieved countercyclical fiscal policy - saving in booms and easing in...

Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage, including monetary and portfolio balance models. In this paper we re-assess the in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of a wider set of models that have been...