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This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Coverage also examines alternative ways to deal with risk and risk attitude concepts. Behavior under...
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This paper extends Savage's subjective approach to probability and utility from decision problems under exogenous uncertainty to choice in strategic environments. Interactive uncertainty is modeled both explicitly, using hierarchies of preference relations, the analogue of beliefs hierarchies,...
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We conduct an experiment in which we elicit subjects’ beliefs over opponents’ behavior multiple times for a given game without feedback. We find that the large majority of individual subjects have stochastic belief reports, which we argue cannot be explained by learning or measurement error....
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We study the problem of elicitation of subjective beliefs of an agent when the beliefs are ambiguous (the set of beliefs is a non-singleton set) and the agent's preference exhibits ambiguity aversion; in particular, as represented by alpha-maxmin preferences. We construct a direct revelation...
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This chapter reviews developments in the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty, focusing on models that … “linearity in the probabilities” aspect of expected utility theory to game theory. The chapter consists of two main parts: The …-dependent utility models and cumulative prospect theory. The second part reviews theories of decision making under uncertainty that …
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We provide a discipline for beliefs formation through a model of subjective beliefs, in which agents hold incorrect but strategic beliefs. More precisely, we consider beliefs as a strategic variable that agents can manipulate to maximize their utility from trade. Our framework is therefore an...
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