Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months. We find that gold contains significant information for future inflation for several countries, especially for those that have adopted formal...

Previous studies have shown that interest rate yield spreads contain useful information about future changes in inflation. However, such studies have for the most part focused on linear models, ignoring potential non-linearities between interest rates and inflation. Using two different...

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation. Using a dimension-reduction method similar to...

The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation. Previous authors have found that the information content of asset prices in general, and equity and housing prices in particular, are...

Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months. We find that gold contains significant information for future inflation for several countries, especially for those that have adopted formal...