We estimate monetary policy activism, defined as responsiveness of the policy interest rate to inflation, among five inflation-targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand) plus the G3 (the US, Japan and Germany) by applying a time-varying parameter with a...

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy which approximately accounts for the empirical evidence concerning the monetary transmission mechanism, as summarized by impulse response functions derived from an estimated structural vector...

We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining the evolution of expert disagreement in forecasting real GDP growth and inflation over 24 monthly horizons for G7 countries during 1990-2007. Professional forecasters are found to begin and have relatively more success...

This paper estimates a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, specified along the lines of Galí and Monacelli (2005) and Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), using Chilean data for the full inflation-targeting period of 1999 to 2007. We study the specification of the...

Several central banks have adopted inflation targets. The implementation of these targets is flexible; the central banks aim to meet the target over the long term but allow inflation to deviate from the target in the short-term in order to avoid unnecessary volatility in the real economy. In this...

We examine the profitability of personalized pricing policies that are derived using different specifications of demand in a typical retail setting with consumer-level panel data. We generate pricing policies from a variety of models, including Bayesian hierarchical choice models, regularized...

With the concept of trend inflation now widely understood as to be important as a measure of the public's perception of the inflation goal of the central bank and important to the accuracy of longer-term inflation forecasts, this paper uses Bayesian methods to assess alternative models of trend...

As an emerging economy, Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit countries by the crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the...

This paper estimates and tests a new Keynesian small open economy model in the tradition of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003) using Bayesian estimation techniques on Swedish data. To account for the switch to an inflation targeting regime in 1993 we allow for...

This paper estimates a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, specified along the lines of Galí and Monacelli (2005) and Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), using Chilean data for the full inflation-targeting period of 1999 to 2007. We study the specification of the...