Das dritte Kapitel trägt den Titel "Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation." Es handelt sich hierbei um eine Zusammenarbeit mit Shoujian Zhang. Im Fokus der Untersuchung stehen antizipierte Steuerreformen. Die Individuen in der Ökonomie haben nicht-rationale...

I develop an equilibrium model with collateral constraints in which rational agents are uncertain and learn about the equilibrium mapping between fundamentals and collateral prices. Bayesian updating of beliefs by agents can endogenously generate booms and busts in collateral prices and largely...

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors?in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential...