Investors typically measure an asset’s potential to diversify a portfolio by its correlations with the portfolio’s other assets, but correlation is useful only if it provides a good estimate of how an asset’s returns co-occur cumulatively with the other asset returns over the investor’s...

A recursive formula for computing the exact value of score vectors is proposed, which is more desirable than approximate values in some statistical analyses, for a general form of the linear Gaussian state space model. Unlike most extant methods, our formula calculates all components of the...

Electricity retailers face increasing uncertainty due to the ongoing expansion of unpredictable, distributed generation in the residential sector. We analyze how increasing levels of households' solar PV self-generation affect the short-term decisionmaking and associated risk exposure of...

Discrete Fourier transforms (dft's) of fractional processes are studied and an exact representation of the dft is given in terms of the component data. The new representation gives the frequency domain form of the model for a fractional process, and is particularly useful in analyzing the...

I show that sharp identified sets in a large class of econometric models can be characterized by solving linear systems of equations. These linear systems determine whether, for a given value of a parameter of interest, there exists an admissible joint distribution of unobservables that can...

This article describes the R package DEoptim, which implements the Differential Evolution algorithm for global optimization of a real-valued function of a real-valued parameter vector. The implementation of Differential Evolution in DEoptim interfaces with C code for efficiency. The utility of...

Popular smoothing techniques generally have a difficult time accommodating qualitative constraints like monotonicity, convexity or boundary conditions on the fitted function. In this paper, we attempt to bring the problem of constrained spline smoothing to the foreground and describe the details...

This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast electricity price spreads between different hours of the day. This supports an optimal day ahead storage and discharge schedule, and thereby facilitates a bidding strategy for...

Diversification is a fundamental topic for all investors but there remains little agreement on how to measure it. Often it is defined ambiguously through risk-based portfolio construction techniques. Recently it has been suggested to connect maximising diversification with minimising risk...

Using big financial data for the price dynamics of U.S. equities, we investigate the impact that market microstructure noise has on modeling volatility of the returns. Based on wavelet transforms (DWT and MODWT) for decomposing the systematic pattern and noise, we propose a new wavelet-based...