A financial model is a model designed to represent in mathematical terms the relationships among the variables of a financial problem so that it can be used to make projections and/or answer ‘what if' questions. In particular, financial modeling can be combined with optimization modeling to...

This paper examines the effectiveness of using futures contracts as hedging instruments of: (1) alternative models of volatility for estimating conditional variances and covariances; (2) alternative currencies; and (3) alternative maturities of futures contracts. For this purpose, daily data of...

The paper examines the performance of four multivariate volatility models, namely CCC, VARMA-GARCH, DCC and BEKK, for the crude oil spot and futures returns of two major benchmark international crude oil markets, Brent and WTI, to calculate optimal portfolio weights and optimal hedge ratios, and...

We consider the basic problem of refi tting a time series over a finite period of time and formulate it as a stochastic dynamic program. By changing the underlying Markov decision process we are able to obtain a model that at optimality considers historical data as well as forecasts of future...

We introduce a notion of volatility uncertainty in discrete time and define the corresponding analogue of Pengs G-expectation. In the continuous-time limit, the resulting sublinear expectation converges weakly to the G-expectation. This can be seen as a Donsker-type result for the G-Brownian...

Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are popular risk measures from academic, industrial and regulatory perspectives. The problem of minimizing CVaR is theoretically known to be of a Neyman-Pearson type binary solution. We add a constraint on expected return to investigate...

The rapid development of artificial intelligence methods contributes to their wide applications for forecasting various financial risks in recent years. This study introduces a novel explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) approach without a requirement of rich expertise in financial risk....