This paper estimates how the US budget responds to shocks in taxes, spending and output. In particular, we consider the dynamic adjustment of the two budget components (taxes and spending) to such shocks. The recently developed Generalized Impulse Response Function, which takes the historical...

In this paper we propose a sequential method for determining the number of breaks in piecewise linear structural break models. An advantage of the method is that it is based on standard statistical inference. Tests available for testing linearity against switching regression type nonlinearity...

In this paper we propose a method for determining the number of regimes in threshold autoregressive models using smooth transition autoregression as a tool. As the smooth transition model is just an approximation to the threshold autoregressive one, no asymptotic properties are claimed for the...

Recent studies provide strong statistical evidence challenging the existence of out-of-sample return predictability. The economic significance of return predictability is also controversial. In this paper, we find significant economic gains for dynamic trading strategies based on return...

Although the impact of structural breaks on testing for unit root has been studied extensively for univariate time-series, such impact on panel data unit root tests is still relatively unknown. A major issue is the choice of model in accommodating different types of break prior to testing for...

A new estimation procedure for the Cox proportional hazards model is introduced. The method proposed employs the sample covariance matrix of model covariates and alternates between estimating the baseline cumulative hazard function and estimating model coefficients. It is shown that the...

The popular logit model is extended to allow for varying stochastic parameters (mixed logit) and non-linearities of regressor variables while analysing a cross-sectional sample of German corporate credit defaults. With respect to economic interpretability and goodness of probability forecasts...

The elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) is one of the key parameters in the Economics and Finance literature. It is usually estimated by means of the consumer’s Euler Equation using an instrumental variable approach, and the estimates are usually zero or close to zero. Nevertheless,...