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Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno; Prokopczuk, Marcel; Wese Simen, … - 2017

is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are … mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail risk. World fear is also priced in the crosssection of stock returns …. Buying stocks with high sensitivities to World Fear while selling stocks with low sensitivities generates excess returns of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751251

Comments on: Nonparametric tail risk, stock returns and the macroeconomy

Camponovo, Lorenzo; Scaillet, Olivier; Trojani, Fabio - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011518800

Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability

De Rezende, Rafael B. - 2015 - February 2015

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516

Portfolio Return Prediction and Risk Price Heterogeneity

Taylor, Nicholas - 2023

A model of portfolio return dynamics is considered in which the price of risk is permitted to be heterogeneous. In doing this, a novel method is proposed that delivers improved out-of-sample forecasts of portfolio returns. The main innovation is the use of a set of predictors that account for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350699

Cross-section without factors : correlation risk, strings and asset prices

Distaso, Walter; Mele, Antonio; Vilkov, Grigory - 2021 - This version: January 13, 2021

Many asset pricing theories treat the cross-section of returns volatility and correlations as two intimately related quantities driven by common factors, which hinders achieving a neat definition of a correlation premium. We formulate a model without factors, but with a continuum of securities...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421289

Joint extreme events in equity returns and liquidity and their cross-sectional pricing implications

Ruenzi, Stefan; Ungeheuer, Michael; Weigert, Florian - 2020 - This version: January 2020

We merge the literature on downside return risk and liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risks. The cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium if a stock's return (liquidity) is lowest at the same time when the market liquidity (return) is lowest....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012175486

Time-series momentum : a Monte-Carlo approach

Cheng, Enoch; Struck, Clemens - 2019

This paper develops a Monte-Carlo backtesting procedure for risk premia strategies and employs it to study Time-Series Momentum (TSM). Relying on time-series models, empirical residual distributions and copulas we overcome two key drawbacks of conventional backtesting procedures. We create...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990919

Inflation uncertainty and disagreement in bond risk premia

D'Amico, Stefania; Orphanides, Athanasios - 2014

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441139

What Drives the Expected Return on a Stock : Short-Run or Long-Run Risk?

Dorion, Christian - 2020

This paper addresses this question with an asset-pricing model featuring endogenous corporate policies. Long-run risk reflects a firm's profit exposure to slowly-moving expected consumption growth, whereas short-run risk captures the exposure to frequent unexpected changes in consumption growth....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852955

Tail Risk and Asset Prices in the Short-term

Almeida, Caio; Freire, Gustavo; Garcia, René; Hizmeri, … - 2022

We combine high-frequency stock returns with risk-neutralization to extract the daily common component of tail risks perceived by investors in the cross-section of firms. We find that our tail risk measure significantly predicts the equity premium, variance risk premium and realized moments of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239649

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