The major sources of variability in net farm income on New York dairy farms over the past 10 years are identified using Dairy Farm Business Summary records. The most important source of income variability is the fluctuation in milk prices, followed closely by year-to-year variation in the...

Major sources of variability in net farm income on New York dairy farms over the past 10 years are identified using variance decomposition methods. The most important source of income variability is the fluctuation in milk prices, followed closely by year-to-year variation in the quantity of...

A rational expectations storage model is used to simulate monthly corn prices, which are used to evaluate marketing strategies to manage price risk. The data are generated and analyzed in two formats: for long-run outcomes over 10,000 “years” of monthly prices and for 10,000 cases of 40-year...

Descriptive statistics and time-series econometric models are used to characterize the behavior of monthly fluid milk prices. Prices in April, May and June appear to be more variable than those in subsequent months, and the spring-time prices are perhaps skewed. Econometric models can capture...

Expectations about future economic conditions are important determinants of commodity prices. This paper presents a relatively simple model that makes futures prices for corn a function of expected production and inventories and of variables that account for demand shifts. The intent is to...