Most theories of risky choice postulate that a decision maker maximizes the expectation of a Bernoulli (or utility or similar) function. We tour 60 years of empirical search and conclude that no such functions have yet been found that are useful for out-of-sample prediction. Nor do we find...

We introduce new graphical displays that present binary choice lotteries via three dimensional rotating pie charts whose heights represent the prize amounts. We compare four graphical versions to the original text-only Holt & Laury (2002) multiple price list. Parametric and non-parametric...

We explore a variety of risk preference elicitation procedures that involve direct choice from a set of lotteries, including budget lines (BL) and binary choice lists (HL). We find statistically significant violations of the expected utility hypothesis (EUH) consistent with disappointment...

We explore a variety of risk preference elicitation procedures that involve direct choice from a set of lotteries, including budget lines (BL) and binary choice lists (HL). We find statistically significant violations of the expected utility hypothesis (EUH) consistent with disappointment...

Does individual behavior in a laboratory setting provide a reliable indicator of be- havior in a naturally occurring setting? We consider this general methodological ques- tion in the context of eliciting risk attitudes. The controls that are typically employed in laboratory settings, such as...