A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early 1980s, i.e., the quot;Great Moderation.quot; This paper documents the Great Moderation at the state level, finding significant heterogeneity in the timing and magnitude of states'...

Forecasting macroeconomic variables using diffusion indexes in short samples with structural change / Anindya Banerjee, Massimiliano Marcellino, Igor Masten -- Predictive inference under model misspecification / Nii Ayi Armah, Norman R. Swanson -- Forecasting persistent data with possible...