The first global financial bubble in stock prices occurred 1720 in Paris, London and the Netherlands. Explanations for these linked bubbles primarily focus on the irrationality of investor speculation and the corresponding stock price behavior of two large firms: the South Sea Company in Great...

The first global financial bubble in stock prices occurred 1720 in Paris, London and the Netherlands. Explanations for these linked bubbles primarily focus on the irrationality of investor speculation and the corresponding stock price behavior of two large firms: the South Sea Company in Great...

This paper documents that crowding by market participants affects the expected return to popular factor strategies such as value, momentum, and carry. Using data published by the CFTC for commodity futures markets, we construct a direct measure of factor strategy crowding that is based on the...

This paper examines the behavior of futures prices and trader positions around the occurrence of price limits in commodity futures markets. We ask whether limit events are the result of shocks to fundamental volatility or the result of temporary volatility induced by the trading of...

The paper extends previous work on the information in the term structure about future real economic growth. For the U.S. and Germany, and to a lesser extent for the U.K., we find evidence that the long end of the term structure has information about future growth of industrial production beyond...