Option prices predict the cross section of equity returns. We show that, unconditionally, the prices of long-dated options contain all the information relevant for predicting returns. Information, however, shifts towards short-dated options when an earnings announcement is imminent and when...

In our paper — “How Can ‘Smart Beta' Go Horribly Wrong?” — we show, using U.S. data, that the relative valuation of a strategy (in comparison with its own historical norms) is correlated with the strategy's subsequent return at a five-year horizon. The high past performance of many of...

We use a holdings-based attribution model to disaggregate the benchmark-adjusted returns to U.S. equity mutual funds into components that reflect persistent segment tilts, the timing of segment returns, and stock selection relative to their benchmarks. We find that large-cap funds add value by...

This article uses the Expectations Hypothesis (EH), one of the oldest theories in finance, to extract the information contained in the term structure of commodity futures prices. Under the powerful framework provided by the EH, we find a significant amount of predictability in commodity futures...