We investigate the forecasting performance of popular dynamic factor models of the yield curve after the global financial crisis (GFC). This time period is characterized by an unprecedented low and non-volatile interest rate environment in most major economies. We focus on the dynamic...

In this paper we investigate the use of forecast averaging for electricity spot prices. While there is an increasing body of literature on the use of forecast combinations, there is only a small number of applications of these techniques in the area of electricity markets. In this comprehensive...

This paper provides a novel approach for the pricing of electricity derivatives, in particular so-called ‘cap' contracts, where the payoff is determined by the sum of all half-hourly spot prices exceeding a specified strike level. Given the highly volatile nature of electricity prices, these...

In the last decade, the Australian market for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) has shown substantial growth rates. Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (AREITS) are a unitized portfolio of property assets which allows investors to purchase a share in a diversified and professionally...

We estimate an unobservable domestic business conditions index for Australia using a variety of observable macroeconomic and financial variables, relating it to an unobservable external index involving external variables relevant to Australia. Our small open economy, dynamic factor model uses...

We focus on model risk and risk sensitivity when addressing the insurability of cyber risk. The standard statistical approaches to assessment of insurability and potential mispricing are enhanced in several aspects involving consideration of model risk. Model risk can arise from model...

Influential system-wide events in financial markets share the characteristics of risk contagion and spillover, termed financial systemic risk. Current literature documents the causal relationship between asset diversification and systemic risk through the channel of asset similarity. However,...

In credit risk management migration matrices are major inputs for many applications, including the determination of Value-at-Risk or derivative pricing. After reviewing distance measures for migration matrices we motivate and propose new directed difference indices to measure changes in...