How can you tell if a particular sports dataset really adds value? The method introduced in this paper provides a way for any analyst in almost any sport to determine the additional value of almost any dataset. Applying the method to NBA betting markets with a standard dataset available publicly...

We show that the probability of risk parity beating any other portfolio is more than 50 percent. We also prove that if portfolio performance is measured by Sharpe ratio, risk parity is the only maximin portfolio when (1) all assets' future Sharpe ratios are greater than an unknown constant and...

I prove that if markets are efficient, meaning current prices fully reflect all information available in past prices, then P = NP, meaning every computational problem whose solution can be verified in polynomial time can also be solved in polynomial time. I also prove the converse by showing how...

We show that any objective risk measurement algorithm mandated by central banks for regulated financial entities will result in more risk being taken on by those financial entities than would otherwise be the case. Furthermore, the risks taken on by the regulated financial entities are far more...

The performance of the average investor in an asset class lags the average performance of the asset class itself by an average of one percent per year over the past fifteen years, based on net investor mutual fund cash flows. We present a model in which a representative behavioral investor...

A multi-billion-dollar, multi-year discrepancy between two identical share classes of Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) did not suffer from traditional external limits to arbitrage such as transactions costs and risk measures. One possible explanation is that self-imposed limits...

Representative investors whose behavior is modeled by a deterministic finite automaton generate complexity both in the time series of each asset and in the cross-sectional correlation when the rule governing their behavior is schizophrenic, meaning the investor holds multiple seemingly...