The altered allocations of money market volatility obtained by alternative monetary policy procedures are illustrated by stochastic simulations of a staff monthly model.The results indicate the nature of the tradeoff between short-run volatility in the money stock and in the funds rate that is...

This paper introduces an empirical measure of the cost of allocating money market volatility between the money stock and the Federal funds rate, the principal purpose being to devise a framework for data-based measures of the short-run implied by alternative operating procedures

This paper explores the specification and use of uncertainty measures in constructions of policy forecasts of money market activity. The concept of a policy forecast implies efforts not only to explicitly condition forecasts on assumptions regarding short-run operating procedures but also to...

The optimal control literature traditionally analyzes linear-quadratic Gaussian (LQG) formulations of macroeconomic policy design where policy planers seek to minimize the distance between a direct target vector y and a vector of aspiration levels y*, using a suitably dimensioned matrix M as a...

The three pillars of econometric modeling are: (1) the reduced form, (2) the recursive form, and (3) the structural form. Each of these techniques exists for the purpose of revealing the joint conditional probability distributions of current and lagged endogenous variables conditional on the...

In a Ramsey policy regime, heterogeneity in beliefs about the potential costs of climate change is shown to produce policy ambiguities that alter carbon prices and taxation. Three sources of ambiguity are considered: (i) the private sector is skeptical, with beliefs that are unknown to the...