We develop an extension of Luce's random choice model that incorporates a role for the association of alternatives. Each alternative is characterized by a salience value, a Luce value, and its associated alternatives. The salience value captures the alternative's ability to attract the decision...

Bringing together the classic defense of liberty and democracy, the political economy of hierarchy, endogenous growth theory, and the new institutional economics on growth, we propose a new institutional theory that identifies democracy's unique advantage in prompting economic growth. We contend...

Bringing together the classic defense of liberty and democracy, the political economy of hierarchy, endogenous growth theory, and the new institutional economics on growth, we propose a new institutional theory that identifies democracy's unique advantage in prompting economic growth. We contend...

We model a decision maker who anticipates her preference to change in the future, and optimistically evaluates each menu according to the best choice that could possibly be made by her future self. We characterize this menu preference by axioms weak order, independence, semi-continuity,...

We introduce a new updating rule, the conditional maximum likelihood rule (CML) for updating ambiguous information. The CML formula replaces the likelihood term in Bayes’ rule with the maximal likelihood of the given signal conditional on the state. We show that CML satisfies a new axiom,...

We study the design of mechanisms involving agents that have limited strategic sophistication. The literature has identified several notions of simple mechanisms in which agents can determine their optimal strategy even if they lack cognitive skills such as predicting other agents' strategies...

With the rapid development of the economy, urban pollution has become a hot issue of human concern, and people are put forward higher requirements for the accuracy of pollutant concentration simulations. Based on the the WRF-Chem model simulation results and Beijing environmental monitoring...