A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian vector autoregressive process. This is tantamount to...

Portfolio recommendations should include, beyond an estimate of the expected return on the investment, also an assessment of the associated level of risk. This paper introduces a simple methodology to assign stock recommendations based on a firm valuation procedure that replaces the conventional...

In all investment decisions it is important to determine the degree of uncertainty associated with the valuation of a company. We propose an original and robust methodology to company valuation which replaces the traditional point estimate of the conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) with a...

In all investment decisions it is important to determine the degree of uncertainty associated with the valuation of a company. We propose an original and robust methodology to company valuation which replaces the traditional point estimate of the conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) with a...

This paper presents two stocks recommendation systems based on a stochastic characterization of firm present value that extends the conventional discounted cash flow analysis. In the Single-Stock Quantile recommendation system, the market price of a company's stocks is compared with the...

During the last decades several financial market experiments have been conducted to investigate the price bubble formation mechanism and the impact of human behaviour on it. We extend well-established laboratory market models to the two-asset case, accounting at the same time for heterogeneous...

We investigate cross-impact in a hybrid experimental market, featuring both human and artificial agents. We exogenously vary across two treatments the available liquidity for trading. In treatment Separated participants have one distinct portfolio for each one of two stocks (markets are...

In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of public and private debts on U.S. output dynamics. We estimate a battery of Cointegrated Structural Vector Autoregressive models, and we identify structural shocks by employing Independent Component Analysis, a data-driven technique which avoids...