The U.S. economy had experienced the "jobless recovering" after the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions, which has been constantly puzzling the economists, market analysts, and policymakers. This paper uses a simple hiring game in an efficiency wage model framework to resolve that puzzle. Our...

We utilize a Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility to filter out the national factor from the local components of weekly state-level economic conditions indexes of the United States over the period of April 1987 to August 2021. Then, we forecast the state-level factors. The forecasting...