This paper studies the nature of business cycle variation in individual earnings risk using a dataset from the U.S. Social Security Administration, which contains (uncapped) earnings histories for millions of anonymous individuals. The base sample is a nationally representative panel containing...

This paper studies the cyclical nature of individual income risk using a confidential dataset from the U.S. Social Security Administration, which contains (uncapped) earnings histories for millions of individuals. The base sample is a nationally representative panel containing 10 percent of all...

Between 1980 and the early 1990s the variability of labor earnings growth rates across the prime-age working population fell significantly. This decline and timing are consistent with other macro and micro observations about earnings growth volatility that are collectively referred to as the...

Inferences about earnings volatility across groups and time depend on underlying models of earnings dynamics, data sources, earnings concepts, and sampling strategies. In this paper we evaluate a model of earnings dynamics in which the permanence of shocks varies by age and education. This...