We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, char- acterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, and the long-term simple rate, considered as...

We develop the HJM framework for forward rates driven by affine processes on the state space of symmetric positive semidefinite matrices. In this setting we find an explicit representation for the long-term yield in terms of the model parameters. This generalises the results of El Karoui et al....

We introduce here the idea of a long-term swap rate, characterized as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap (OIS) with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, (F. Biagini, A. Gnoatto & M. Härtel (2018) Affine...

It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates. Moreover, the diffusion term in the rate dynamics goes to zero...

It is well known that the CIR model, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short rates, r(t). Moreover, in the CIR model, the stochastic part goes to zero with the rates, neither volatility nor long term mean change with time, or fit with...

The aim of this paper is to propose a new methodology that allows forecasting, through Vasicek and CIR models, of future expected interest rates (for each maturity) based on rolling windows from observed financial market data. The novelty, apart from the use of those models not for pricing but...