Previous findings indicate that the inclusion of dynamic factors obtained from a large set of predictors can improve macroeconomic forecasts. In this paper, we explore three possible further developments: (i) using automatic criteria for choosing those factors which have the greatest predictive...

Dynamic factor models (DFM) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels of macroeconomic and financial data can be captured by relatively few common...

This paper examines the usefulness of shadow rates to measure the monetary policy stance by comparing them to the official policy rates and those implied by three types of Taylor rules in both inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and others that have only...

This paper describes a dynamic factor model for the Maltese economy. The model mainly serves as a tool to timely provide the Central Bank of Malta with nowcasts as well as short-term forecasts of the growth rate of the real gross domestic product, which in turn are used as an input in the...

This paper sets out a comprehensive framework to identify regional business cycles within Spain and analyses their stylised features and the degree of synchronisation both within them and between them and the Spanish economy. We show that the regional cycles are quite heterogeneous although they...

Equity basket correlation is an important risk factor. It characterizes the strength of linear dependence between assets and thus measures the degree of portfolio diversification. It can be estimated both under the physical measure from return series, and under the risk neutral measure from...

Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zu den Gebieten der Finanzmarktökonomik und der Makroökonomik liefern. Der erste Essay beschäftigt sich mit der Spezifikation der Investoren verfügbaren Informationsmenge in Tests bedingter Kapitalmarktmodelle. Im...

Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zur Messung von Konjunkturzyklen und deren Zusammenhänge zu demographischen Variablen liefern. Der erste Essay analysiert unter Zuhilfenahme eines Bayesianischen Dynamischen Faktormodelles die Volatilität des...

This paper investigates the transmission of US macroeconomic shocks to Germany by employing a large-dimensional structural dynamic factor model. This framework allows us to investigate many transmission channels simultaneously, including 'new' channels like stock markets, foreign direct...