Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and … subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations … empirical relationships are in fact stable. We consider continuous models, which predict either economic growth or inflation …

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation … uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model …

This paper documents a significantly stronger relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future excess bond …