We argue that noncausal autoregressive models are especially well suited for modeling expectations. Unlike conventional causal autoregressive models, they explicitly show how the considered economic variable is affected by expectations and how expectations are formed. Noncausal autoregressive...

We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. We measure economic narratives in open-ended survey responses and represent them as Directed Acyclic Graphs. We apply this approach...

We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In surveys with more than 10,000 US households and 100 academic experts, we measure economic narratives in open-ended survey...