In the paper the fractionally integrated heteroskedastic factor vec- tor autoregressive (FI-HF-VAR) model is introduced. The proposed approach is characterized by minimal pretesting requirements and sim- plicity of implementation also in very large systems, performing well independently of...

Motivated by the “shocking” evidence of non-stationary behavior of money market spreads during the crisis, we investigate the economic and statistical features of money market turbulence by means of a Fractionally Integrated Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive model. This approach...

The paper aims at assessing the mechanics of the Great Recession, considering both its domestic propagation within the US, as well as its spillovers to advanced and emerging economies. A total of 50 countries has been investigated by means of a large-scale open economy macroeconometric model,...

Previous models of monthly CPI inflation time series have focused on possible regime shifts, non-linearities and the feature of long memory. This paper proposes a new time series model, named Adaptive ARFIMA; which appears well suited to describe inflation and potentially other economic time...

The paper investigates linkages between general macroeconomic conditions and the housing market for the G-7 area. Among the key results of the paper, it is found that the US are an important source of global fluctuations not only for real activity, nominal variables and stock prices, but also...

A new approach to mean-variance efficient portfolio selection is introduced. The method is based on realized regression theory and the regression based portfolio selection approach of Britten-Jones (1999), yielding a conditional version of the Britten-Jones (1999) method. Application to euro...

This paper introduces a new long memory volatility process, denoted by Adaptive FIGARCH, or A-FIGARCH, which is designed to account for both long memory and structural change in the conditional variance process. Structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept to follow a slowly varying...

In this paper the contributions of economic and financial integration to international stock markets comovements are investigated by means of a large scale macroeconometric model, set in the factor vector autoregressive framework (FVAR). The findings point to a key role of both economic and...

In the paper a new approach to the modelling of common components in long memory processes is introduced. The approach is based on a two-step procedure relying on Fourier transform methods (firrst step) and principal components analysis (second step), which, differently from previous...

In this paper international comovements among a set of key real and nominal macroeconomic variables for the G-7 countries have been investigated for the 1980-2005 period, using a Factor Vector Autoregressive approach. We present evidence that comovements in macroeconomic variables do not concern...