Includes bibliographical references (p. 23-27).

"The Marketing Center." Sponsored by a grant from General Motors (Buick Motors Division).

"This paper is also available under MIT Operations Research Center Technical Report TR-109."

We explore some of the challenges in forecasting customer acceptance of products that revolutionize product categories or define new categories. Specifically we address future conditioning, full information, user experience, user control, and active search. We describe a new method based on...