A small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK is estimated over the period 1965q1=1995q4 in eight core variables: domestic and foreign outputs, domestic and foreign prices (both measured relative to oil prices), the nominal effective exchange rate, nominal domestic and foreign interest...

In this paper we discuss the 'structural cointegrating VAR' approach to macroeconometric modelling and compare it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround marco-economic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

It is now quite common to have panels in which both T, the number of time series observations, and N, the number of groups, are quite large and of the same order of magnitude. The usual practice is either to estimate N separate regressions and calculate the coefficient means, which we call the...

The paper develops a general framework for identification, estimation, and hypothesis testing in cointegrated systems when the cointegrating coefficients are subject to (possibly) non-linear and cross-equation restrictions, obtained from economic theory or other relevant a priori information. It...

This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a long-run level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The proposed tests...

This paper generalizes the existing cointegration analysis literature in two respects. Firstly, the problem of efficient estimation of vector error correction models containing exogenous (1) variables is examined. The asymptotic distributions of the (log- )likelihood ratio statistics for testing...

In this paper we follow recent developments of panel data studies and explicitly allow for the existence of unobserved common time-specific factors where their individual responses are also allowed to be heterogeneous across cross section units. In the context of this extended panel data...